Preseason 1st Base Rankings

My list of catcher didn’t post the way I wanted it to, so I’m not going to include stats in my first baseman rankings. However, if you’d like the numbers, email me…..Anyways, to the list…

This list vs. others
Derrek Lee-->3rd, ESPN-->10th
Adrian Gonzalez-->6th, ESPN-->11th
Ryan Howard-->5th, ESPN-->2nd
Richie Sexson-->12th, ESPN-->26th
Joey Votto-->14th, ESPN-->22
Albert Pujols-->avoid, ESPN--> first


Strategy for picking first baseman:

There are 8 elite first baseman, and after that you can pick and choose the order. Try to grab one of the first 8 if you can.


1) Mark Teixeira, Braves

Teixeira’s numbers have gone down since his breakout year in ’05, but expect him to reverse that trend in his first full year as a Brave. He has a solid lineup around him, and he ended very strong last year, ending with 10 HRs, 32 RBIs, and a .315 AVG in August, and 7 HRs, 24 RBIs, and a .320 AVG in September. Expect him to get his numbers to jump from where they’ve been the last 2 years.

Prediction: 159 games, 102 runs, 41 HRs, 123 RBIs, 1 SB, .310 AVG



2) Prince Fielder, Brewers

Fielder had a huge jump in his numbers last year, and if it wasn’t for the potential in the rest of the lineup, I wouldn’t see him matching what he did last year. I don’t see any way in Hell he hits 50 again, but I think the rest of his stats should be about the same. He’ll produce as the 2nd best first baseman for the year.

Prediction: 159 games, 107 runs, 43 HRs, 112 RBIs, .282 AVG



3) Derrek Lee, Cubs

Lee’s September numbers were amazing-7 HRs, .365 average. Expect him to build off of that, and produce a top 5 ranking. With the lineup the Cubs are going to throw out there, Lee will have a ton of protection.

Prediction: 152 games, 107 runs, 35 HRs, 92 RBIs, 5 SBs, .323 AVG



4) Justin Morneau, Twins

Morneau, who turns 27 in May, is one of the many first basemen entering his prime. Without Santana, the Twins offense is going to have to step up. They’ll have a decent amount of pop, and look for Morneau to increase all phases of his stats. He only batted .243 in the second half, but look for him to rebound nicely and have a career year in ’08.

Prediction: 157 games, 99 runs, 36 HRs, 135 RBIs, .319 AVG



5) Ryan Howard, Phillies

Howard has been in arbitration talks all off season, and I look for him to get off to a slow start, and then come out blazing. He won’t match his stats from last year or ’06, but after about mid-May, look for him to put up the best stats in the league the rest of the year. This would be a good candidate to try to get off of an impatient owner.

Prediction: 148 games, 89 runs, 45 HRs, 132 RBIs, .272 AVG



6) Adrian Gonzalez, Padres

Gonzalez is entering the beginning of his prime (he turns 27 in May) and he’s coming off a great 2nd half in which he batted .302 and had 2 more HRs in 36 less ABs than in the 1st. Look for him to step into 1st tier of fantasy first basemen.

Prediction: 160 games, 112 runs, 34 HRs, 108 RBIs, .305 AVG


7) Lance Berkman, Astros

The last of the killer B’s left, Berkman is hitting in probably the best lineup there’s been since he’s been in Houston. Last year, he hit .298 with RISP. In ’06, he hit almost .400. If he gets that average in the middle somewhere and with the addition of Tejada hitting in front of him, he’ll be back on track in the RBI department.

Prediction: 154 games, 95 runs, 31 HRs, 121 RBIs, 5 SBs, .293 AVG



8) Carlos Pena, Rays

Pena had a break out year in ’07; don’t expect him to come close to the HR numbers again this year, but it is safe to assume that with the an extra year of experience for rest of the Rays lineup, he should be able to keep his team related stats high (RBI/runs)

Prediction: 142 games, 101 runs, 37 HRs, 118 RBIs, .276 AVG.



9) Carlos Guillen, Tigers

With the improvement of his lineup, and the transitioning to an easier position of 1B, look for Guillen to have even better numbers this year. He’ll also have SS eligibility in almost every league, so that’s an added bonus.

Prediction: 156 games, 94 runs, 23 HRs, 112 RBIs, .304 AVG



10) Todd Helton, Rockies

Helton looked rejuvenated during the Rockies run towards the playoffs, and I see him caring it into this season. With an additional year of experience for the younger guys, his team related stats (RBIs/runs) will go up. Look for another great year for Helton.

Prediction: 148 games, 92 runs, 19 HRs, 102 RBIs, .318 AVG



11) Adam Laroche, Pirates

The 28 year old turned around in the second half of ’07. He batted .312 after the break, and .348 in August. Look for him to build on that into ’08.

Prediction: 153 games, 79 runs, 28 HRs, 94 RBIs, .276 AVG



12) Richie Sexson, Mariners

Sexson numbers have been steadily going down with his age, but this is a contract year for Sexson, so look for him to pick his numbers up a bit.

Prediction: 149 games, 78 runs, 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, .255 AVG.



13) Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

The “Greek God of Walks” has a strangle hold on the Red Sox first base job, and is right in the middle of the lineup. His ABs went down last year as he batted later in the order, as did his runs, but expect all of his stats to go up this year as he enters his 3rd full year. Any time you bat behind Manny and Ortiz you’re going to get a ton of RBI opportunities.
Youkilis was consistent throughout the whole year, other than in May, where he batted .402, and July, when he batted .219. He looks very consistent, and won’t kill you in a H2H league by being streaky.

Prediction: 144 games, 89 runs, 19 HRs, 88 RBIs, .292 AVG



14) Joey Votto, Reds

By all accounts, Votto will get the starting nod over Scott Hatteberg, and will bat either 2nd or 8th. He hit 22 HRs in AAA in 133 games last year, batted .321, and had 92 RBIs. The Reds lineup is loaded this year, so look for him to get his fair share of RBIs, but if he bats all year in the 8 hole, he will not score you a ton of runs. Look for him to split time between to the two spots, getting a decent amount of both RBIs and runs, but not a ton of either. Great sleeper from the 1B spot.

Prediction: 142 games, 85 runs, 19 HRs, 89 RBIs, .301 AVG



15) Paul Konerko, White Sox

Konerko is getting older, and his numbers are reflecting that. Expect his numbers to continue to go down. However, his numbers will still be nothing to scoff at.

Prediction: 149 games, 67 runs, 26 HRs, 84 RBIs, .251 AVG



16) Conor Jackson, D’Backs

Jackson is coming off of a solid season and will be batting in the middle of the D’Backs order. With the extra year of experience for Jackson and the rest of the lineup, and if he can avoid the injury plague, look for his stats to jump this year.

Prediction: 147 games, 76 runs, 18 HRs, 83 RBIs, 3 SB, .287 AVG



17) Mike Jacobs, Marlins

Jacobs is entering his prime during his 3rd season of his career, and he has plenty of upside. If he can avoid injuries and get back to the around the 136 games he played in ’06, he could give you very good numbers.

Prediction: 139 games, 74 runs, 24 HRs, 69 RBIs, .264 AVG



17) Ryan Garko, Indians

Garko will again play about 4 out of 5 days this year, with the 5th day being when Victor Martinez is moved to first in to allow Kelly Shoppach to go behind the plate. Garko will give you some decent power numbers, but with Martinez playing first every 5th day, his RBIs and runs will not have a chance to go up.

Prediction: 140 games, 67 runs, 23 HRs, 64 RBIs, .293 AVG



18) Casey Kotchman, Angels

Kotchman is one of the Angels heralded prospects, and for good reason. However, he still has things to work on and most likely will not be a fantasy starter this year. However, he’s worth taking a late round flier on, especially in a keeper league.

Prediction: 142 games, 72 runs, 14 HRs, 76 RBIs, .302 AVG



19) Carlos Delgado, Mets

Delgado’s numbers dropped off significantly last year, and they’re going to keep on slipping this year. He turns 36 midseason, and, even with the Mets lineup, he will not be able to get his numbers back up.

Prediction: 134 games, 64 runs, 18 HRs, 79 RBIs, .251 AVG



20) James Loney, Dodgers

Loney is a pretty good prospect for the Dodgers, but there could be a risk involved in drafting him. If Nomar gets a small injury or if Andy Laroche beats Nomar out at 3rd, you could see Garciappara moving to 1B and taking a decent amount of ABs from Loney.

Prediction: 134 games, 58 runs, 19 HRs, 76 RBIs, .314 AVG



21) Daric Barton, A’s

Daric Barton, who came over to the A’s in the Mark Mulder deal, looks to be the everyday first baseman in Oakland this year. Barton is the real deal. Barton doesn’t have much power (9 HRs in 516 minor league AB’s last year), but he’ll give you a fair share of average, runs, and RBIs.

Prediction: 152 games, 74 runs, 10 HRs, 79 RBIs, .299 AVG



22) Aubrey Huff, Orioles

Nothing special here. No upside, average stats. No point in really taking him unless you absolutely need a first baseman. His power dropped off considerably last year, and don’t expect him to be able to regain it.

Prediction: 147 games, 65 runs, 10 HRs, 63 RBIs, .276 AVG



23) Ben Broussard, Mariners

Broussard will give you average stats, and should really only be used as a filler. Not worth a draft pick.

Prediction: 124 games, 43 runs, 15 HRs, 42 RBIs, .273 AVG



24) Shelly Duncan, Yankees

Duncan is projected to start the year as the Yankees starting first baseman, but don’t expect him to get a ton of ABs. First base is most likely going to be a rotation of overpaid players who are injured and need to play first, or they need to DH, forcing Jason Giambi to play first. He’s got power potential, but he won’t get enough ABs to do anything with it.

Prediction: 78 games, 32 runs, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs, .254 AVG


Players to stay away from:

Albert Pujols, Cardinals

I’ve already into why I don’t think Pujols is worth a first round draft pick this year, and I’m standing by that, but I’ll still give you a projection of where he could be if you believe he will remain healthy.

Prediction: 145 games, 105 runs, 37 HRs, 112 RBIs, .325


Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays

Overbay had a procedure to remove screws from his hand last year, and the hands are not something you want a hitter to be worried about. He is not worth the risk, even with the risk being so small.


Nick Johnson/Dimitri Young, Nationals

You probably won’t know until the middle of spring training whose won this job. I see them ending up splitting time anyways, with Young getting the ABs against the lefties, and Johnson the righties. If that happens, neither will probably get enough ABs to justify a roster spot.


Ross Gload, Royals

Don't waste your time with Gload. He does not have the best of stats as it is and will split time with either Ryan Shealy or Billy Butler



Dan Ortmeier, Giants

There’s no reason to even look at Ortmeier unless you’re in a very, very, very deep league.